The fourth industrial revolution
will have the greatest impact on routine tasks. A flexible,
well-educated and suitably trained workforce will be critical
By Jock Finlayson
and Kristine St.-Laurent Business Council of B.C.
The
work world is being transformed by rapidly evolving digital
technologies as we march into what many are calling the "fourth
industrial revolution."
With
disruptive technologies pushing the frontiers of automation, some of
the comparative advantages humans traditionally have enjoyed relative to
technology are eroding. Computers and learning-based algorithms have
progressed beyond replacing repetitive, manual tasks with mechanical
execution.
What does all of this portend for the future of employment?
In
the job market, advances in technology are expected to have the
greatest impact on tasks that are routine in nature. Such tasks aren't
necessarily mundane but they're labelled routine because they could be
fully automated in the foreseeable future.
Routine
tasks are found in most occupations and constitute part of many kinds
of work activity. Examples include mathematical calculations involved in
accounting and financial analysis; organizing and disseminating
information; the physical execution of repetitive work, such as driving;
and some types of repeated research, such as that performed when filing
a patent.
In
thinking about how technology shapes the labour market, a key insight
is that automation is both a substitute for and a complement to human
capital and intelligence. The challenge for workers is to figure out
where they can add value and/or perform tasks that can't be automated.
The
quick displacement of vast numbers of jobs is unlikely in the near
term. A recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute estimates that
between three and 14 per cent of the global workforce will need to
switch occupational categories by 2030. This points to gradual change.
The
good news is that increased automation should boost economy-wide
productivity. But it may also translate into reduced full-time
employment and downward pressure on wages and benefits for some workers.
The net result is likely to be a widening divide between those whose
work and skills complement technology, versus those who end up at a
disadvantage in the digital age. A legitimate concern for policy-makers
is that more individuals will be trapped in a downward cycle of
low-skilled, low-paying employment, with diminished opportunities to
find or transition into careers that offer a decent income.
Historically,
technological innovations have often disrupted existing industries,
business models and jobs - but without dampening the aggregate demand
for labour. Instead, new industries and occupations have developed to
replace those that have shrunk in the face of technological advances.
Today, however, some analysts fear the expanding digital economy could
lead to a sharp contraction in overall employment, as machines and
software increasingly replace human labour.
In
truth, economists and tech analysts don't know how or exactly in what
time frame the fourth industrial revolution will unfold. However, a
flexible, well-educated and suitably trained workforce will be critical
to meeting the demands of the labour market, regardless of the pace at
which technology advances.
For
government and industry, it makes sense to develop policies and
programs to strengthen in-demand skills and enhance workers' ability to
acquire new skills and knowledge. A greater focus on technical training
generally also makes sense, as people will be needed to operate and
maintain the machines and digital platforms that are expected to
proliferate.
Digitized,
computer-generated knowledge, products and services promise gains in
productivity and the standard of living. But we must be alert to the
risk that these trends will leave behind those unwilling or unable to
adapt.
Jock Finlayson is executive vice-president of the Business Council of British Columbia. Kristine St.-Laurent is a senior policy analyst at the BCBC. |
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Wednesday, August 22, 2018
Jobs and careers in the 'fourth industrial revolution'
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